Expected goals, expected scepticism...

As Jeff Stelling fumed about Arsene Wenger citing expected goals post-match (what does he even know, anyway?), his Soccer Saturday cronies laughed in the background. 'Yeah, you tell 'em Jeff!'

It is not the first outdated rant that a member of the Soccer Saturday team has made, as poor Marco Silva will tell you.

It is no surprise that these 'Football Men', as they often referred as within the game, are as usual off the mark with a new approach within football. I would guess that it threatens their own positions, as they begin to look more and more outdated. 

It is also not surprising that he had absolutely no idea what expected goals really is, as many who dismiss it as pointless do. 

A rant like Stelling's about expected goals is a dangerous one however within football because it will have been lapped up but unsuspecting fans, players and coaches who also have no idea what expected goals, or 'xG' as it can be known, even is. As a result, they will themselves be dismissive as it's a load of nonsense according to good old, lovable Jeff. 

Jeff rants about xG, Marco Silva and
 how football was better in his day

But if you dig a little deeper the whole concept of expected goals is very interesting and above all, useful. How many times have you been discussing a game you've just watched, particularly as a fan of one of the teams, bemoaning the missed chances that have impacted the outcome of the game?

Expected goals actually helps us work out if that is true or not. It is a metric that quantifies the likelihood of an effort on goal actually being scored through an algorithm.

Why should fans care? Well, they don't have to, and they probably don't, but when someone is bemoaning a team's fortunes such 'on another day that shot goes in' or 'we were unlucky' you can actually go a long way to proving it to be true or not.

xG has come to prominence somewhat more as it has started to appear on MOTD (after the corner statistic flashes for each game, how sad am I?) since the start of the 2017-18 season. For anoraks like me, it's really cool that something like this is being embraced in the mainstream media. It is something I think will quickly become the norm amongst football fans in the coming years.

For coaching, scouting and analysis, it is just one of many developments in football analytics. Any team who outwardly promotes their use of analytics is labelled as using 'moneyball', which I think again shows that there is a long way to overcoming the dismissive nature of football towards stats!

A metric like expected goals can be huge for departments across a club. Coaches can assess where they might need to work with a striker, in terms of their finishing or the positions they pick up. Analysts can identify exactly that for them. Scouts can back up subjective attitudes towards a player with objective data like this. If a player truly does pick up good positions but just isn't scoring them yet 'xG' will help identify this, making the recruitment process a whole lot more efficient.

I am by no means an expert on this area, far from it (!) but I do recognise it's significance and how it could aid my own coaching in football if I wish to pursue it at a higher level one day.

As analytics becomes more sophisticated it is slowly being dripped into youth development in the professional game - which can only be a good thing. The more objective we can become to supplement that alongside the more subjective information and ideas we have about players the more informed decisions can be made about young players and their future. Too often, decisions on young players are made on a whim because of a personal opinion from one coach, which may not be representative of that club as a whole. 

In terms of grassroots football, it may not have as much significance due to the nature of the game at that level with various constraints that would not really allow for it, not least of all; time. But just by educating players, or coaches, they can start to think a little more objectively about things rather than relying on their own confirmation bias.

The dismissal of expected goals as a metric by the more old-school thinkers is a strange one, but as I said above not surprising. Statistics, especially the interesting ones, possibly threaten this type of individual's 'traditions' and 'values' and maybe they worry will be rendered useless as modern football develops. Those who embrace it however, will find the benefits. What is to lose anyway?

Though the 'Football Men' may not like it, expected goals is here to stay and is slowly becoming the norm. Furthermore, there will be many more useful statistics to come that will be far more meaningful than the original 'possession' that brought stats into play in football. Analytics is developing in football into something very meaningful, so think before you dismiss it without even understanding it!
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To learn more about expected goals and analytics in football, here are some interesting articles!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/40699431 - BBC article

https://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2017/nov/22/jeff-stelling-expected-goals-stats-xg-soccer-am - Guardian article

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLcXH_4rwr4 - FourFourTwo documentary

https://experimental361.com/ - Very good website that breaks it down

https://statsbomb.com/2013/08/goal-expectation-and-efficiency/ - Goal expectation and efficiency

Are football fans addicted to transfers?

It is safe to say that money has become a rather important factor in football. Little else sums up contemporary football better than how much money there is in the sport. Logic suggests that with more money than other clubs, you increase your chances of tempting their talented footballers to yours. In addition, with more money being offered, the selling club can happily profit from or reinvest the transfer fees they receive for those players. This is not always the case of course but the general feeling is that with enough finance, clubs can get the man they want.

For whatever reason yellow is the theme of transfer deadline day

Young players are able to demand transfers, in the tender years of their careers, in order to force a move to more successful clubs. Those clubs can hoover up the best talent from across the country (with the help of EPPP - for another time), because the initial money they spend is pocket changes to them. And we lap it all up. 

Football is evermore becoming a ruthless business, with the fans baying for blood when results are not how they would like them to be. There is a desire to compete at the highest level by clubs and their fans, for differing reasons, in equal proportion. For the clubs themselves, the revenue and broadcasting rights (in England in particular) bring untold riches. The gap between the richest and the poorer clubs is increasing year after year and if clubs do not act quickly and smartly, they will be the ones left behind. For the fans, Champions League football has developed into the pinnacle of elite football, the holy grail you might say. Unless you support clubs who play in the elite competitions your view is worth less than others. Fans of lower league clubs might even now have a 'second team', one that is successful and have easy access to via TV or the internet.

And the simple solution to improving a team, or increasing their chances of winning, is seen as signing new players. 'Fresh blood', 'competition for places'. It is an easy thing to suggest, and easy for the head coach,  rather than actually doing their job than improving the players they have at their disposal (Harry Redknapp, I'm looking at you). And with this culture of the 'armchair expert', such is the amount of football fans can access nowadays, it is simpler to suggest new players than how the team can improve individually and collectively, on the training ground. After one signing is made attention can immediately turn to another position in the team that needs 'strengthening'. And this leads to the question I ask in this blog: are football fans addicted to transfers?

Such is the hype around transfers that adults will unashamedly admit to booking a day off work for the final day of the transfer window so that they can slouch on sofa, eagerly anticipating whichever bizarre way Jim White chooses to announce himself to the Sky studios with his bright yellow tie for all to see. White can be thankful to the career boost from the fanfare around transfers as he has become something of a cult hero, presenting as the face of transfer deadline day.

A transfer deadline day "classic"

What is it about making new signings that the fans just love? A club rarely makes outstanding signings 100% of the time, with no guarantee on the outcome of any deal. Regardless, it is greeted as a sign of ambition, and that is important to many within the game. Some signings can be just as much about of being seen to mean business than even improving the first team.

Could it be argued that in England this thirst for fresh faces affects the development of our home grown talent? Not in the typically argued 'them bloody foreigners' way but that, in general, if a club feels the need to continuously replenish their playing staff, how on earth can young players stake their claim for a first team place? Without that initial opportunity, how can we know whether we are producing the talent that we are told is not being developed after every international tournament failure?

Not that signing new players is bad, far from it. A good signing can dramatically improved a team's performances and have a positive effect. However there are just as many cases were deals are seen as 'flops' that have blocked off the chance for someone else, already at the club, to step up and show their worth.

I'm not sure how the amount of players that are brought into a club within one window can be slowed down, or if it ever will! Whether there are too many transfers between clubs, and too much money thrown around, is all very subjective anyway. A more cautious approach by any club would be met with riots! With the impact social media now has news travels at incredible speed, fans are desperate to be the first to find out and stay in the loop, and that shows no signs of slowing either.